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Power with Nature: Solar and Wind Energy Demystified

One of the challenges of integrating renewable energy into the grid is the intermittent nature of sources such as solar and wind. If not managed properly, this variability could cause power spikes or deficits.

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Operators must understand and accurately predict these variabilities to keep the grid stable and operating within levels required by regulatory standards. This is a constant balancing act over days, hours, and even minutes. Operators must continually predict the amount of solar and wind power and maintain system balance by adjusting conventional energy sources like coal, oil, and natural gas.

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And they must do this while accounting for the time it takes for additional generators to start up and come on line, as well as meeting fluctuating energy demands by consumers. This is where PNNL expertise comes in.

The researchers define and explain the sources of uncertainty, including forecast errors, unexpected generator shutdowns and malfunctions, deviations in conventional generators, and variations in net load. The power systems community needs to shift its approach dramatically for grid operations and planning, according to the PNNL experts.

Solar Power Is About To Get MUCH Cheaper

Makarov, Etingov, and Ma present a new approach based on uncertainty models for each contributing factor, combined with performance and reliability criteria. A case study from California, which leads the nation in renewable energy production, demonstrates an early example of this approach.


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Using the tool, operators can see potential shortfalls in the coming hours and take corrective actions to prevent them. How does this tool work? The tool forecasts and shows how the system conditions are expected to change, so that operators can better adjust balancing needs.

California's Renewable Energy Problem